The recently signed Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Defence Pact is being hailed as historic. Still, it also casts a nuclear shadow across South Asia and the Middle East. For the first time in decades, a Muslim-majority nuclear power has formally pledged to defend the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a move that could alter the region’s strategic balance and trigger fears of a broader conflict.
A Pact Signed in Turbulent Times
On 18 September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia entered into a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA). Signed in Riyadh by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the pact commits both nations to treat an attack on one as an attack on both.
The timing is significant. Israel’s recent strike on Doha, Qatar, has raised questions about Gulf security. At the same time, Pakistan’s own military skirmishes with India earlier this year highlighted South Asia’s volatility. In this backdrop, the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Defence Pact signals a tightening of alliances and a warning to adversaries.
India’s Alarm: A Nuclear Concern
While Saudi Arabia and Pakistan describe the pact as purely defensive, India views it with suspicion. For New Delhi, the greatest worry is whether Saudi funding could strengthen Pakistan’s already formidable military and, indirectly, its nuclear program.
Former Indian diplomat Kanwal Sibal warned:
“This deal means Saudi money could end up reinforcing Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence. In a worst-case scenario, Riyadh might even seek an undeclared nuclear umbrella through Islamabad.”
The concern is not unfounded. Pakistan remains the only nuclear-armed Muslim nation, and while Defence Minister Khawaja Asif clarified that the agreement does not involve nuclear sharing, speculation continues. The question troubling strategists is whether this pact could evolve into an atomic security guarantee for Saudi Arabia.
Could This Lead to a Nuclear War Scenario?
The pact introduces unsettling scenarios into the regional security equation:
- If India were to engage in another military confrontation with Pakistan, would Saudi Arabia’s backing embolden Islamabad to escalate more quickly?
- Suppose Israel perceived Saudi Arabia as shielded by Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence. Could it trigger a dangerous arms race in the Middle East?
- If Iran, already wary of Riyadh, interprets the pact as a nuclear alignment, could it accelerate its own military programs?
Experts warn that even without explicit nuclear clauses, the psychological impact of the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Defence Pact could increase the chances of nuclear brinkmanship. A miscalculation between India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers could spiral into a regional war, dragging in Saudi Arabia, Iran, and even Israel.
Symbolism: Pakistan’s Return, Modi’s Setback
The agreement also symbolizes Pakistan’s resurgence on the world stage. For years, India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has courted Saudi Arabia through investments, energy deals, and high-profile visits. Yet, at this crucial moment, Riyadh has chosen to sign its most significant defence pact with Islamabad.
Strategist Brahma Chellaney observed:
“Modi spent years trying to bring Saudi Arabia closer, but this deal marks a strategic snub. Saudi Arabia has tied its security future to Pakistan and indirectly, to its nuclear shield.”
For India, the timing could not be worse, as it now faces the prospect of Pakistan leveraging Gulf alliances to strengthen its own deterrence posture.
Beyond Israel: Religious and Prophetic Dimensions
Some observers argue that the pact goes beyond geopolitics. In certain circles, speculation has emerged that Saudi Arabia is not only seeking protection from Israel’s strikes but also preparing for larger, prophetic confrontations, including the awaited return of Imam Mehdi.
This narrative frames the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Defence Pact not just as a military agreement but as a symbolic alignment of Muslim powers in anticipation of future battles whether against Israel, regional rivals, or larger ideological struggles.
A Dangerous New Security Order
International experts caution that the pact could reshape the global order in unsettling ways:
- Middle East Arms Race: Iran and possibly Turkey could intensify their military ambitions in response.
- Nuclear Speculation: Even without explicit clauses, Riyadh’s alignment with a nuclear-armed Pakistan invites suspicion of a hidden atomic umbrella.
- Risk of Escalation: Any future India-Pakistan clash could now carry the risk of wider regional involvement — and potentially, nuclear escalation.
Huma Baqai, an international relations expert, warned:
“This pact is not just historic it is destabilizing. By tying Saudi Arabia’s security to Pakistan’s nuclear power, the region has entered uncharted territory.”
Conclusion: Between Deterrence and Disaster
The Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Defence Pact is undoubtedly a milestone in Muslim world unity and a statement of defiance against regional threats. But beneath the celebratory rhetoric lies a darker possibility that the agreement could push the region closer to nuclear brinkmanship.
For Pakistan, the deal restores strategic relevance. For Saudi Arabia, it offers a partner beyond Washington’s shadow. But for India, Israel, and Iran, it signals an unsettling new reality — one where a misstep could ignite not just another war, but a nuclear confrontation with global consequences.
