After many years of rapid growth of incomes and output, there should be little doubt that an economic slowdown of some degree is now well underway in the world. In many cases, this slowdown is accompanied by inflation. Just how much a threat this inflation is posing is open to question. But we have the double curse – stagnation and inflation. We may hope for relief from this “stagflation” but this may not be realistic. This global recession is predicted to be a depression (a more serious contraction of GDP and which endures for a decade or more). Within OECD countries the inflation rates have not reached double digits yet, but it is likely they will soon. More worrisome is the inflation from developing countries, where inflation is often above 10% annually. And this inflation will be exported to the OECD countries, argues Thomas Pochari (www.worldaffairsmonthly.com). So, we can see that the rising cost of products and services is becoming THE biggest concern in everyone’s mind. The price is the power.
Is there a way out of this distressing economic predicament? Amazingly, this was also the case some 500 years ago. Europe then coveted spices from India and the Far East but had to pay high prices to the Arab “middlemen” merchants who traded with India and the Far East. Then, out of nowhere appeared the Portuguese scientist and explorer Vasco da Gama (1460-1524). da Gama changed the world forever in 1497. He discovered the sea route to India by sailing south around the continent of Africa. da Gama’s discovery cut out the Arab middlemen and allowed Europe to buy commodities directly from the Asian suppliers at much cheaper rates, thus depriving the Arab merchants of their commission. The Arab economy began to decline.
Asian despotism prevented their development, and so for five centuries, the West was able to enjoy cheap Asian commodities. But the most important commodity now is the oil. There is no economic development and growth without petroleum. The price of a barrel of oil in 1999 was as low as $9 USD, and in 2008 it touched $147 per barrel. It should be clear that what is urgently required is another Vasco da Gama. The West needs, even require, cheap commodities. This time the Arabs are not the middlemen, however. They are the owners – the owners of the oil fields. In the absence of a Vasco da Gama, the United States and the West have decided on Al Qaeda instead. The West wants and needs lots of Al Qaedas in the Middle East and Central Asia. According to some reports, the USA wants to build 57 bases just in Iraq (Al Qaeda means “the base” in Arabic). The important question is: how many Al Qaedas would be needed to equal one Vasco da Gama? OPEC, not the West, has the oil. No matter how much drilling we do, supply will not meet demand, so oil prices will continue to rise.
We know therefore that it is not a coincidence that America has for over a half-century been “interested” in the politics of the Middle East – mainly to control the price of oil. “No substitute exists for oil”, argues Abdulhay Yahya Zalloum in Oil Crusades: America Through Arab Eyes (Pluto Press, 2007, London). It is plainly obvious that oil is the most valuable and important commodity in the world. The United States and its western allies want direct access to the oil of the Middle East. “Resource wars have already begun, though they are conveniently called a War on Terror to make them easier to sell,” writes Zalloum. The “War on Terror” is a pretext for seizing control of the Middle East; it is a media PR. Zalloum does not shy away from stating the truth and the painful facts regarding the future of the world economy. His book is clear and powerful and he does make a persuasive argument. Since there is only a finite amount of oil in the world, America must change. This is his argument, in brief. And I do agree. I publish below a few paragraphs from Zalloum’s book.
The price is the power, and this is all very exciting – but there is something else. I was reminded of a prediction that I had made some six months ago in a discussion with a colleague. The price is the power, and for this reason, I predicted that we will see within some time female leadership in power in the UK, the USA, and Israel. They will be “heads of state.” At the time of my prediction, Hillary Clinton was contending for the Democratic nomination in the presidential race. Does this appear something of a “conspiracy theory”? Perhaps it does, but it is a fact that these female leaders will be prone to manipulation and outright control by the powerful American and western elite. These women will be more akin to followers than leaders. We have experience of this already. Margaret Thatcher was brought to power in the 1980s to bring major structural changes in the UK. The price is the power, and it, therefore, determines our course and our fate.
